Housing Market: California Home Sales And Prices Expected To Rise In 2013 At Slower Rate Due To Effects Of “Underwater Borrowers”

5 10 2012

When will the housing market be “corrected?”The housing recovery in California is expected to continue through to 2013, but the market won’t be “corrected” until as far off as 2017, according to the California Housing Market Forecast released by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS.

  • Homes sales and prices are expected to keep rising, but lower-than-normal inventory levels and underwater mortgages are key hindrances to a faster recovery, according to Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist with the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
  • Home sales are forecasted to rise 1.3 percent to 530,000 units next year, based on the projected tally of 523,300 units this year. That’s a slower growth than that of 2011 to 2012, which is roughly 5 percent.
  • The momentum in prices also is expected to carry through to 2013, a result of pent-up demand for a limited housing supply. The median price could rise 5.7 percent to $335,000 in 2013. That’s lower than the projected price growth from 2011 to 2012, an estimated 11 percent. The state has a 3.2 months’ worth of housing inventory, significantly lower than the 16 months’-plus supply of saw roughly four years ago.
  • “Pent-up demand from first-time buyers will compete with investors and all-cash offers on lower-priced properties, while multiple offers and aggressive bidding will continue to be the norm in mid- to upper-price range homes,” said Appleton-Young in the report.
  • Appleton-Young says what underwater borrowers throughout the state will do — be it selling or holding — will have a big effect on next year’s housing recovery.
  • Other things to watch next year that will have a bearing on the housing market include: policies related to the state,local and federal governments; and housing and monetary policies, Appleton-Young said.
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Housing Market: Fannie Mae Reports That Consumers Expect “Modestly Positive” Increases In Home Prices; Confidence In Economy Dips

11 09 2012

Consumer sentiment regarding the housing market continues its modestly positive trend, according to results from Fannie Mae’s August 2012 National Housing Survey. Supported by the expectation that home prices will rise in the next year and more saying it is a good time to sell, Americans have maintained a cautious but improving view of the housing market and homeownership. However, their stalling household financial expectations and declining economic optimism will likely mean the rate at which the housing market recovers will remain tempered.

Homeownership and Renting

  • Average home price change expectation is 1.6 percent, largely consistent with last month and down from a June high of 2.0 percent.
  • Eleven percent of those surveyed say home prices will go down in the next year, holding steady at the lowest level since the survey’s inception in June 2010.
  • At 40 percent, the percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months has increased by 4 percentage points since July.
  • Eighteen percent of respondents say it is a good time to sell, the highest level since the survey’s inception.
  • The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy has remained steady at 73 percent.
  • Forty-four percent of those surveyed say home rental prices will go up in the next year, a decrease of 3 percentage points, while 5 percent expect them to go down.
  • The average rental price change expectation decreased 0.7 percent from last month to 3.2 percent, the lowest level since January 2012.
  • The percentage of respondents who say they would buy if they were going to move increased slightly to 67 percent, while 28 percent would rent.

The Economy and Household Finances

  • Consumer optimism continues to wane, with 33 percent saying the economy is on the right track, a slight decrease from last month and 5 percentage points lower than the May 2012 peak.
  • The percentage of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get worse fell slightly to 13 percent, while those expecting their personal financial situation to stay the same increased slightly to 41 percent.
  • The share of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained steady at 20 percent, while those who say it is significantly lower increased slightly to 16 percent.
  • Fifty-six percent of those surveyed say their household expenses are about the same as they were a year ago, a slight decrease over July.




Housing Market: Home Prices Increase 3.8% For Latest Year In July 2012, Biggest Increase Since 2006

5 09 2012





Housing Market: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increases 0.5% In June 2012; Prices Return To Summer 2003 Levels

28 08 2012





Housing Market: Latest Data Shows Home Prices Increasing Annually Year-Over-Year For First Time Since 2007

27 08 2012

According to the FHFA data, the first and second quarter of this year delivered the first year-over-year increase in the seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index ()HPI)( since the first and second quarters of 2007. The second quarter registered a 1.3% inflation-adjusted price increase. Forty-three states experienced price increases. The two FHFA charts below show a distinct stabilization in prices. The chart of price changes shows an encouraging pattern of higher highs and higher lows that signifies a sustained trend upward from the bottom. The price index indicates downward momentum came to a screeching halt last yearת with 2012 building off that base.

For more:  http://seekingalpha.com/article/828731-latest-housing-price-data-confirm-housing-bottom-is-underway





California Home Sales And Prices Move Higher In July; Prices Near Four-Year High

21 08 2012





Housing Market: National Association Of Realtors (NAR) Reports June 2012 Home Price Improvements Due To Fewer Distressed Properties; First-Time Homebuyers Account For 32% Of Purchases

14 08 2012

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the bigger story is lower inventory and the recovery in home prices. “Despite the frictions related to obtaining mortgages, buyer interest remains solid. But inventory continues to shrink and that is limiting buying opportunities. This, in turn, is pushing up home prices in many markets,” he said. “The price improvement also results from fewer distressed homes in the sales mix.”

  • Distressed homes3 – foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts – accounted for 25 percent of June sales (13 percent were foreclosures and 12 percent were short sales), unchanged from May but down from 30 percent in June 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 18 percent below market value in June, while short sales were discounted 15 percent. “The distressed portion of the market will further diminish because the number of seriously delinquent mortgages has been falling,” said Yun.
  • First-time buyers accounted for 32 percent of purchasers in June, compared with 34 percent in May and 31 percent in June 2011. “A healthy market share of first-time buyers would be about 40 percent, so these figures show that tight inventory in the lower price ranges, along with unnecessarily tight credit standards, are holding back entry level activity,” Yun said.

For more:  http://www.realtor.org/node/4785